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Which player does not dream of finding an online casino with a really high chance of winning, because whoever plays in the online casino would like to win continuously. But we’re talking about gambling here and they follow different rules. Specifically, it is about the probability calculation and fixed payout percentages. Today we take a look at how these influencing factors work and what players should pay attention to when choosing their online casino.

The best casinos with a high chance of winning

Again test winner 05/2022:
SilverPlay
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GreatWin Casino
100% bonus up to €500 + 200 free spins
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New online casino with EU license
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Best Slot Provider:
SlotHunter Casino 200 Free Spins + up to €300
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Without limits and regulations
Test winner Germany:
National Casino € 550 bonus + 250 free spins
Without limitations & video identification
No 5 second break
4.8
Without rules & limits with EU license
Slots & much more:
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GSlot Casino
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With table games, jackpots and live games
Recommendation of the test team:
Casinoly
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5.0
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4-in-1 Super Casino Package:
DACHbet Casino
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Which online casinos have which chances of winning?

This information is based on our own experience and is not confirmed and of course without guarantee.

Online casinowebsiteSlotsLive casino Ø quota
Slotildato visit97,13 %98,01 %97,57 %
Platinum Casinoto visit97,02 % 97,96 % 97,49 %
Casinorexto visit 96,97 % 97,79% 97,38 %
National Casinoto visit 96,78 % 97,66 % 97,22 %
Casombieto visit96,69 % 97,54 % 97,16 %
LuckyDaysto visit 96,65 % 97,49 % 97,07 %
SlotHunterto visit 96,60 % 97,43 % 97,02 %
Four crownsto visit 96,57 % 97,39 % 96,98 %
Winny Casinoto visit 96,51 % 97,33 % 96,92 %
Playouwinto visit 96,34 % 97.29 % 96,82 %

Chances of winning on slot machines

placeSlot machineRTPHouse edgedeveloper
1Mega joker98,90 %1,10 %NetEnt
2Jackpot 600098,90 %1,10 %NetEnt
3Blood suckers98,00 %2,0 %NetEnt
4Big Bass Bonanza96,71%3,29 %PragmaticPlay
5The Dog House96,51 %3,49 %PragmaticPlay
6Yum Yum96,43 %3,57 %PragmaticPlay
7Fruit Case96,40 %3,60 %NetEnt
8Dr. Toonz96,25 %3,75 %Play’n GO
9Book of Dead96,21 %3,79 %Play’n GO
10Monkey Mania96,17 %3,83 %Gamomat
11Book of Ra95,10 %4,90 %Novomatic
12Reactoonz94,51%5,49%Play’n GO

Casino games payout percentages

Casino gameRTP ØCasino advantage Ø
Slot machines / slots96 %4 %
Video poker99,54 %0,46 %
European roulette97,3 %2,7 %
American roulette94,74 %5,26 %
Black jack99,4 %0,6 %
Baccarat98,83 %1,17 %

The difference between variance & RTP

gewinnchancen online casino

In order to find online casinos with the highest chances of winning, it is important to differentiate between two important terms. When game developers release new content, they always specify the variance and RTP. These terms are often mixed up. For the subjective perception of the winning situations, they are indirectly linked to one another. However, they by no means mean the same thing.

RTP

The payout ratio of a game of chance is called “Return to Player” (RTP). This percentage indicates how much of the stake flows back to the player on average. For example, if a slot machine has an RTP of 96%, he pays back around € 96 of the € 100 staked. This is an estimate, which the slot gets closer to the more laps are turned.

Variance

In contrast to the percentage RTP, the variance is not specified with a fixed numerical value. Instead, there is a subdivision into low, medium and high variance. In the calculation of probability, this term stands for the “scatter” of the profits. The more understandable term “fluctuations” is easier to remember.

A slot machine with high variance, i.e. strong fluctuations, can generate large streaks of luck at times. But it is also possible for him not to pay anything out for a long time. If you tend to switch to TILT mode quickly, you should therefore only choose slots with low variance.

Theory vs. Practice in the Chances of Winning in Online Casinos

A high variance can therefore also create long-lasting streaks of bad luck. The players have to adjust to this accordingly. With an appropriately large credit and adjusted stakes.

As far as the calculation of probability is concerned, theory and practice are felt to be worlds apart. Because the specified payout ratio (RTP) is calculated on thousands of spins or coups. If you only spin your preferred slot 100 times, you will rarely hit the RTP.

Nevertheless, it is fundamentally important for everyone who wants to have high chances of winning and payouts to select the slot machines in a targeted manner. Both the variance and the RTP value.

Progressive jackpots usually pay off worse

One of the worst ideas is to specialize in progressive jackpots. Here the large winnings are tempting, but appearances are deceptive. Because in order to finance these jackpots, developers almost always have to reduce the RTP significantly. Thus, the said machines often slip below 90% RTP, which is simply not up-to-date for a slot machine on the Internet. The absolutely minimal chance of the jackpot in no way compensates for this disadvantage.

A look at the bottom of the page helps

But how does a player find out how good or bad the chances of winning a game of chance are? There are a number of places to go for this, and they all require a bit of research as few providers obviously provide these numbers.

Many beginners and even experienced players often do not know what useful information is at the bottom of a casino’s page. This shows how transparent the provider really is. In addition to the accepted payment methods and licensing, you can also see the General Terms of Use (GTC) here. If nothing is written there about the chances of winning, then maybe in the FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions). A reputable online casino may not make the payout percentage obvious, but will at least provide that information somewhere in the Terms of Service or Frequently Asked Questions.

Check with the game developer

If you find information on the casino website, the providers usually only refer to the game developers. The RTP value for each individual game is displayed on the websites of NetEnt , Microgaming, Playtech & Co. We would only believe these official sources if the online casino itself did not provide any payout percentage statements for retrieval.

Test laboratories such as eCOGRA

ecogra edited

It looks a little different when the online casino can be checked by an independent test laboratory. That eCOGRA seal is best known here, but there are other instances. This can also be found at the bottom of the page, provided the operator is not afraid of the costs.

The results are then stored in a document or on a separate page of the laboratory. Almost always in a summary according to game groups (slots, roulette, blackjack etc.) Often an even more simplified version is used. Then there are only slots, table games, bingo, etc.

But at least such a review gives the certainty that someone outside of the gaming industry has looked at the matter.

Adapted RTP is not uncommon

However, there is still something to consider and this is only noticeable in a larger comparison. If online casinos disclose their chances of winning themselves, these can vary for the same game. E.g. Casino A offers 96% RTP for the selected slot, Casino B only uses 93%.

This seems justified for two reasons. On the one hand, the contracts with the suppliers can allow a corresponding adjustment. On the other hand, the RTP discrepancy is sometimes due to different regions from which the game is played.

We are currently experiencing such a problem in Germany. With the new State Treaty on Gambling of July 2021, the providers were imposed a flat tax of 5.3%. This is payable on all income, regardless of the payouts to the players. This tax puts online casinos in financial distress, even if this is not obvious to everyone.

For better understanding: A player deposits money. For each use, the operator has to pay 5.3% tax. If the player now wins an amount X and uses it again while playing, the casino also has to pay taxes on the winnings paid out for each new bet (which is counted as income again). Logically, it is a losing proposition for the online casino at this moment.

So far, providers have solved this in two different ways. Either the tax is passed on directly, so that players also lose 5.3% or similar on all bets, or they do not notice it immediately because the online casino has simply lowered the payout ratio (RTP) of its slot machines.

Who cares?

As I said, most players don’t even recognize this approach because they simply find these details uninteresting. But if you regularly bet real money when playing and want to proceed as strategically as possible, you will consciously make a different choice. With these people, the offer is extensively compared and only providers with the highest chances of winning are searched for.

Why do I never win anything – am I out of luck or only bad chances of winning?

glueck online casinos edited

Now that we have explained variance and RTP, we want to go into the subjective factor. Your own feeling, which suggests that you are simply never lucky. If you play in a reputable online casino, the RTP value always remains the same. We are not aware of any casino that makes changes to the detriment of individual players. Neither in the slots nor in the live casino.

However, this subjectivity remains and is also greatly influenced by the variance. If you spin thousands of rounds on the same slot machine, you will slowly approach the average value of the named payout percentage. Even so, it happens that there is no appreciable profit for one hundred spins. That is precisely the variance and it cannot be calculated in any more detail.

Ironically, high variance slots are often portrayed as something positive by game developers. With the suggestion that the big hit could be achieved at any time. Much gentler on the nerves, however, are slot machines with medium to low variance. Occasionally, the programmers are already showing this in their slots. We know it, for example. by Pragmatic Play. Where one lightning bolt stands for a low and five lightning bolts for a high variance (volatility).

How can all of this be summed up?

If you only want to play in online casinos with high chances of winning, you have to bring some time with you. To analyze the information offered. Either on the casino’s website or through external, trustworthy sources. However high the RTP may be, with the variance an unpredictable factor always comes into play. This makes gambling exciting, but on some days it can get on your last nerve.

The chance of winning can be calculated as a percentage, but you cannot influence your luck. If you play long enough, you will eventually have a lucky hit, some players may even have a real lucky streak, the chances of winning are really good for them. Despite everything, it is pure luck that determines your chance of winning. And you’re lucky or you’re not.

Odds & Odds FAQ

What does RTP mean?

The abbreviation stands for “Return To Player”. It describes the percentage that is paid back to the players on average. As an example: An RTP of 95% means that of 100 euros bet, 95 euros will be paid out again. The slot or table gets closer and closer to this RTP value the more it is played. During short sessions, the repayments can also be significantly higher or lower.

Difference between payout rate and win rate?

The payout rate is denoted by “RTP” in English. While players often equate this with the win rate, this is not true. Because the win rate shows the relationship between the stake and the average profit. This says nothing about the frequency of wins (variance), but only what net profit a player can expect on average.

What does the house edge mean in an online casino?

The term house edge comes from the tables in casinos. In principle, it can be equated with the RTP (Return To Player) value. Even if a player uses the perfect strategy, the operator will make more profits than losses in the long run. This is what is meant by the house edge. Who e.g. Playing roulette or blackjack very strategically can reduce the house edge to under 1%. The chance of winning in the casino can therefore increase somewhat with the right strategy.

How do you recognize good chances of winning?

If many players use the same title, this can be an indication of high winning chances. Many online casinos keep a real-time list of winnings. If a game appears here particularly often, you should try your luck on this slot machine. If you want to rely purely on the number base, take the RTP value as an indication of the chance of winning. However, he must also take into account the relationship to the variance. Ideally, the game has an RTP of 96% or more, with low variance.

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